I wrote this before the games started and posted it on Facebook. I wanted to post it here as well so that I have a very public record of the mistakes I made in predicting these matches.
Every year when the knockout rounds of the Champions League begin I somehow make my predictions public. Usually this enables people to make fun of my idiocy, but sometimes my clairvoyance allows me to gloat. Hopefully, this year’s picks will lead to the second option.
Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid: This one seems pretty easy. Despite winning the French Ligue 1 seven years in a row, Lyon always struggled in European competition. This year they are not even close to the top of the standings, a situation that does not bode well for their Champions League chances. Real Madrid, after some early season struggles, have proved themselves to be serious contenders. Of course, any team that owns Kaka, Ronaldo, and Benzema had better be competitive. The only difficulty I can foresee is Madrid’s tendency to choke when the pressure is on. This stems from their Galacticos strategy. Buying a team rather than developing one often leaves you with a disjointed group of great players, rather than a coherent side. Squads like this often have problems working together under tough circumstances. However, in this case I doubt they will have too many problems. Prediction: Real Madrid.
AC Milan vs Manchester United: This matchup may be one of the most exciting of the year. Regardless of current form, these two teams always provide spectacular attacking displays and tightly contested games. Milan has the advantage considering past meetings (I think) but I’m not sure they have what it takes to repeat their performance of a few years back when they hammered United on the way to the Champions League title. Ronaldinho has not provided the same creativity and attacking flair that Milan had with Kaka, and Pato’s goal-scoring antics in the Serie A have not been repeated in European competition. United, on the other hand, seem to be on a roll, especially after beating the daylights out of Arsenal in London on Sunday. In addition, Nemnja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand, and youngster Johnny Evans are looking unbeatable in defense. Prediction: Manchester United.
FC Porto vs Arsenal: This one is hard for me to call since I haven’t seen very much of either of these two teams this season. Based on the group stage performances, I would have to go with Porto, who finished very close to Chelsea, while Arsenal struggled to win the easiest group. However, given their domestic form, I would have to choose Arsenal, who are inching closer towards Manchester United and Chelsea at the top of the table. History favours Porto, since they won this tournament before, while Arsenal has only ever lost in the finals. Also, every year a Portuguese team makes a surprise run at the title, and Porto has to be that team since they are the only squad from Portugal left. They are well organized, can score goals, and, significantly, I like them better. Prediction: FC Porto.
Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina: This may turn out to be a rather close tie. Bayern has regained their position at the top of the Bundesliga, and they got through the group stage in an incredibly devastating (for me) 4-1 victory away at Juventus. They also beat Fiorentina in the UEFA cup the last time these two teams met. As long as Frank Ribery stays fit, Bayern will be hard to stop. On the other hand, Fiorentina’s performances in the group stage were excellent, particularly their defeat of Liverpool, perennial English favourites. Fiorentina has one of the best coaches in the world in Cesare Prandelli, and one of the best forwards in Europe in Alberto Gilardino. In fact, Gilardino single-handedly pulled Italy through a tough World Cup qualifying campaign with his last minute goals, including a 12-minute hat-trick at home to Cyprus. I see this not as Fiorentina vs Bayern, but Gilardino vs Ribery. Prediction: Fiorentina.
Stuttgart vs Barcelona: This may be the easiest to call, so I won’t analyze it very much. Stuttgart have been performing above expectations, but Barcelona are just too good. Lionel Messi is probably the best player in the world right now, and I can’t see him failing to prove it against the Germans. Barring a huge upset, there is no contest here. Prediction: Barcelona.
Olympiacos vs Girondins de Bordeaux: This is another one that is easy to call. Olympiacos just don’t have the talent to compete with this Bordeaux side. They are leading Ligue 1 by a decent margin and easily topped a group containing Juventus and Bayern Munich. Yoann Gourcuff is looking like the best player in France right now, and he has scored a few goals that are already classics. Like I said, there is no contest here. Prediction: Bordeaux.
CSKA Moscow vs Sevilla: To me this is a toss-up. I haven’t really seen either team play more than one game this season, and there wasn’t much to separate them. CSKA did, however, give Manchester United a run for their money. I think I’m going to go with my heart here and pick the former Red Army team. Prediction: CSKA Moscow.
Internazionale vs Chelsea: If I don’t get to see this game, I am going down to the local television stations and starting a fight with whoever buys their soccer matches. Seriously. I don’t know what the most exciting aspect to look forward to is. Jose Mourinho going up against his old team? Jose vs Ancelotti (come on, Mourinho called him a “spineless animal, like a jellyfish”)? The 1st place Italian team facing off against their English counterparts? Drogba vs Eto’o? Essien vs Muntari? How will the Chelsea morale be after John Terry was discovered sleeping with a teammate’s wife? Will Mario Balotelli fight anyone for taking a dive? There are just too many storylines here to miss. Alright, I know I haven’t compared the teams, but I’m going to pick anyways. Just make sure you watch this one. Prediction: Inter.
Right, I will report back after the round of 16 with the results, and my pick for the quarter finals. I hope I fare better than last year when I chose the teams I liked rather than the ones I thought would win. Why do I always like the underdog?
Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid: This one seems pretty easy. Despite winning the French Ligue 1 seven years in a row, Lyon always struggled in European competition. This year they are not even close to the top of the standings, a situation that does not bode well for their Champions League chances. Real Madrid, after some early season struggles, have proved themselves to be serious contenders. Of course, any team that owns Kaka, Ronaldo, and Benzema had better be competitive. The only difficulty I can foresee is Madrid’s tendency to choke when the pressure is on. This stems from their Galacticos strategy. Buying a team rather than developing one often leaves you with a disjointed group of great players, rather than a coherent side. Squads like this often have problems working together under tough circumstances. However, in this case I doubt they will have too many problems. Prediction: Real Madrid.
AC Milan vs Manchester United: This matchup may be one of the most exciting of the year. Regardless of current form, these two teams always provide spectacular attacking displays and tightly contested games. Milan has the advantage considering past meetings (I think) but I’m not sure they have what it takes to repeat their performance of a few years back when they hammered United on the way to the Champions League title. Ronaldinho has not provided the same creativity and attacking flair that Milan had with Kaka, and Pato’s goal-scoring antics in the Serie A have not been repeated in European competition. United, on the other hand, seem to be on a roll, especially after beating the daylights out of Arsenal in London on Sunday. In addition, Nemnja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand, and youngster Johnny Evans are looking unbeatable in defense. Prediction: Manchester United.
FC Porto vs Arsenal: This one is hard for me to call since I haven’t seen very much of either of these two teams this season. Based on the group stage performances, I would have to go with Porto, who finished very close to Chelsea, while Arsenal struggled to win the easiest group. However, given their domestic form, I would have to choose Arsenal, who are inching closer towards Manchester United and Chelsea at the top of the table. History favours Porto, since they won this tournament before, while Arsenal has only ever lost in the finals. Also, every year a Portuguese team makes a surprise run at the title, and Porto has to be that team since they are the only squad from Portugal left. They are well organized, can score goals, and, significantly, I like them better. Prediction: FC Porto.
Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina: This may turn out to be a rather close tie. Bayern has regained their position at the top of the Bundesliga, and they got through the group stage in an incredibly devastating (for me) 4-1 victory away at Juventus. They also beat Fiorentina in the UEFA cup the last time these two teams met. As long as Frank Ribery stays fit, Bayern will be hard to stop. On the other hand, Fiorentina’s performances in the group stage were excellent, particularly their defeat of Liverpool, perennial English favourites. Fiorentina has one of the best coaches in the world in Cesare Prandelli, and one of the best forwards in Europe in Alberto Gilardino. In fact, Gilardino single-handedly pulled Italy through a tough World Cup qualifying campaign with his last minute goals, including a 12-minute hat-trick at home to Cyprus. I see this not as Fiorentina vs Bayern, but Gilardino vs Ribery. Prediction: Fiorentina.
Stuttgart vs Barcelona: This may be the easiest to call, so I won’t analyze it very much. Stuttgart have been performing above expectations, but Barcelona are just too good. Lionel Messi is probably the best player in the world right now, and I can’t see him failing to prove it against the Germans. Barring a huge upset, there is no contest here. Prediction: Barcelona.
Olympiacos vs Girondins de Bordeaux: This is another one that is easy to call. Olympiacos just don’t have the talent to compete with this Bordeaux side. They are leading Ligue 1 by a decent margin and easily topped a group containing Juventus and Bayern Munich. Yoann Gourcuff is looking like the best player in France right now, and he has scored a few goals that are already classics. Like I said, there is no contest here. Prediction: Bordeaux.
CSKA Moscow vs Sevilla: To me this is a toss-up. I haven’t really seen either team play more than one game this season, and there wasn’t much to separate them. CSKA did, however, give Manchester United a run for their money. I think I’m going to go with my heart here and pick the former Red Army team. Prediction: CSKA Moscow.
Internazionale vs Chelsea: If I don’t get to see this game, I am going down to the local television stations and starting a fight with whoever buys their soccer matches. Seriously. I don’t know what the most exciting aspect to look forward to is. Jose Mourinho going up against his old team? Jose vs Ancelotti (come on, Mourinho called him a “spineless animal, like a jellyfish”)? The 1st place Italian team facing off against their English counterparts? Drogba vs Eto’o? Essien vs Muntari? How will the Chelsea morale be after John Terry was discovered sleeping with a teammate’s wife? Will Mario Balotelli fight anyone for taking a dive? There are just too many storylines here to miss. Alright, I know I haven’t compared the teams, but I’m going to pick anyways. Just make sure you watch this one. Prediction: Inter.
Right, I will report back after the round of 16 with the results, and my pick for the quarter finals. I hope I fare better than last year when I chose the teams I liked rather than the ones I thought would win. Why do I always like the underdog?
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